KXAN

VISION

Geo Strategic Forecasts

Predictions & Pointers towards ''The Future''

by Kxan

Geography | Transaction | Technology | Security

Year 2021

October 2021

The Age of Flying (Part 2) - Aerospace 2.0 Reinvention and the future of Aviation. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) and Vertical Take off & Landing Ports/Vertiports. Let's not talk or over discuss, instead watch what's going on.

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September 2021

The Age of Flying (Part 1) - Flying Machines. Electric Revolution is underway but it's just the beginning and at it's nascent stage. What we are witnessing now and will soon be a part of an everyday life... Flying Cars, Bikes, Taxis, Deliveries, etc. pretty much what we saw in the movies as the future is already here and going to unfold in the next 10years. 2030s would be the reality of flying machines; VTOLs, EVTOLs, PEAVs and Jetpacks! Wait a minute... Air Car Racing/Air Grand Prix???

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August 2021

The Universal Race (Part 2) - Spacialisation! It's not just about the exploration and discovery, that's just the introduction... There's Mining, there's Tourism and there's good old Colonisation but this time by Corporations, wait am not done yet, There are autonomous, independant Space Nations being formed and that's just the beginning!

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July 2021

The Universal Race (Part 1)- Space is the New Base. Earlier it was a new Horizon but now it is a new Frontier. Nations and Corporations are scrambling to be the first to explore and discover ''NEW WORLDS'' and hoist their flags.

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June 2021

Global Game to develop new habitats based on the vision of the future and technological revolution. Cities strainght out of Science Fiction or from depiction of the future in the movies of 80s and 90s. But what it resembles more, are the echoes of the Ancient World and the mighty City States. By the beginning of 2030s world will start going back to the structure Ancient City States, this time ruled not by a King but managed by a CEO or Chairman of a mighty corporation. Corporations will build and manage might cities of the future and Governments would be nothing more but a Council of Elders. There will be Federations, Unions & Alliances of such cities in different regions of the planet, which would make more or less what we call a Country! As I said earlier, this process has already began in 2020s but would pace up by 2030s and be complete by 2040s to 2050. Population or people who doesn’t want to be part of such structure or realities will retreat to the nature and live Off Grid developing small self sustainable communities and societies.

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Cities, not nation states, will determine our future survival. Here’s why

Most nation states have failed to deal with the major global challenges of our era. In their place, cities are stepping up, and these data visualizations help us understand how.

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Looking at human history, nation-states are a recent invention. Thousands of years ago, the political and economic powers lay within the border of cities: Athen and Sparta in Greece, Babylon in Mesopotamia, Tyre city in ancient Lebanon, and Rome of the ancient Roman Kingdom. Nowadays, we have Singapore, Monaco, and the Vatican as the modern independent city-states; whereas cities such as Hong Kong, Macau, and Dubai are autonomous cities – independently functioning with their own governments but are still part of larger nations. It seems hard to imagine a world without countries, but with the rising level of political and economic anxiety, there are talks of demanding independence for major cities.

www.neom.com/en-us

www.acud.eg/

www.forestcitycgpv.com/

Toyota Woven City

May 2021

At first there was nothing beyond the great oceans (according to some) but 500 years ago we found or rediscvored Americas. Later on we discovered many other places and explored unknown regions. But those newly discovered places were inaccessible and hard to reach for humans to exploit, thanks to nature for protecting it so far… But now the nature is sick (going through a cyclic process) or renewing itself and in this way retreating (for a while) until it can flex it’s muscle back again! In the meantime the ICE is melting and those inaccessible places and regions will be accessible.
And those unknown regions which were and are full of wealth and unbelievable fortunes but were impossible to claim because of it’s hostile inhabitants, now will become easier to access. All because of shifting balance of power and turn of tables as well as modernisation or it’s more of ”Restoring lost Knowledge”. There will be highways and Railwaylines from Murmansk (Russia) to Malaysia and Shanghai to Spain. One far fetched idea will also become a reality, a highway and railway connecting Asia to the Americas (North America) through Bering Straight.

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INTERCONTINENTAL RAILWAY

April 2021

Funny but true, ”History repeats itself”. Funny because it’s been since forever but we still haven’t learned a bit. Time and again we love to show that, we love repeating ourselves, precisely love repeating our mistakes. Mistakes of our grandfathers or forefathers, which they specifically told us not to repeat because it didn’t bring them any good. But we want to try the same mistakes ourselves and see what happens, beacuse we are curious? ignorant? over confident?
Crises – It all starts with money, goods and riches

  • Panic of 1901, a U.S. economic recession that started with a fight for financial control of the Northern Pacific Railway

  • Panic of 1907, a U.S. economic recession with bank failures

Conflicts – Always about territory, resources or ego
Pandemic – Nature’s reaction and sometimes human intervention
Collapse – We love to play Rise & Fall since long, but that’s also how the world and the cycle works
1910s
1920s
Unrest – We are not that much in to resting, though we love to talk about ”Peace & Love”
1910s
1920s
Depression – Ofcourse after all of the above what you expect? That’s obvious isn’t it?
War – We all know what we got into during 1930s, no need to mention it.
At the end of above timeline, what started was… World War 2

But this time, it might begin and be fought somewhere else, not in Europe but in Asia.
 
 
100 years later we are on the same track, same old misery, repeating the patttern. Timelines in the present (2000 onwards) might be differing here and there but our actions are the same, our reasons are the same, our intentions are the same, our behaviour haven’t improved and our understanding is…
 
If we don’t break this loop or the pattern, you know where we are heading, you know what’s next, right?
 
Shouldn’t we be leaving a better place for our children and the generations to follow or we are one of those; live in the present (selfishly) and leave a disaster behind?
 
We have given the reins of the world in the hands of those, who don’t care about anything else apart from themselves or just their own people. Who are ill informed and live in the past (keeping grudges and harbour negativity) or in a parallel universe. So how can they construct anything positive for now or the future?
 
Shouldn’t we let the young (fresh, unbiased and constructive minds) take over or at least let them work/choose/decide side by side, because it’s their present and it’s going to be their future.
 
Wouldn’t it be great to learn from ours, others or our ancestor’s mistakes and try not to repeat them – Kxan

At the end of above timeline, what started was… World War 2

But this time, it might begin and be fought somewhere else, not in Europe but in Asia.

Because European aren’t interested in rebuilding all over again after 100 years, they would prefer joining or playing some where else, in another theatre of war.

100 years later we are on the same track, same old misery, repeating the patttern. Timelines in the present (2000 onwards) might be differing here and there but our actions are the same, our reasons are the same, our intentions are the same, our behaviour haven’t improved and our understanding is…

If we don’t break this loop or the pattern, you know where we are heading, you know what’s next, right?

Shouldn’t we be leaving a better place for our children and the generations to follow or we are one of those; live in the present (selfishly) and leave a disaster behind?

We have given the reins of the world in the hands of those, who don’t care about anything else apart from themselves or just their own people. Who are ill informed and live in the past (keeping grudges and harbour negativity) or in a parallel universe. So how can they construct anything positive for now or the future?

Shouldn’t we let the young (fresh, unbiased and constructive minds) take over or at least let them work/choose/decide side by side, because it’s their present and it’s going to be their future.

Wouldn’t it be great to learn from ours, others or our ancestor’s mistakes and try not to repeat them – Kxan

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March 2021

Cont. 30th April 2021

Epidemics & Pandemics might become the new normal, set off by prehistoric viruses in the melting ice sheets and glaciers. Primitive viruses preserved in the rapidly melting ice is the pandora’s box waiting to be opened, and not for good!
 
 
 

If this wasn’t already enough, just to add the human touch or let’s say political foolishness and ego of some nations that have militarised the glaciers on earth and put at stake their own precious water source. The level of political insecurity and ignorance is such that the very thing they want to secure and protect would be destroyed by their actions and egoistic behaviour. Natural resource like water isn’t a political tool or bargaining chip for supremacy, we are not living in the primitive times and in such conflicts there’s never a winner, at the end of it everyone will end up as a loser with an irrepairable damage. Ego matches should be settled in the plane or playing fields not on the very sacred ground which gives life to all.

Icing on the cake is; the level of human greed has reached such heights, that some are building ill planned and concieved hydro projects on the already fast receding glaciers, this isn’t a feat of engineering but a feat of ignorance. Now corporations and financial sector already moving fast to capitalise and control this new commodity ”FRESH WATER” or the ”Blue Gold” will only add more fuel to the already existing and wildly increasing fire.

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The end of a world of nation-states may be upon us | Aeon Essays
Nation-states came late to history, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest they won’t make it to the end of the century
The end of a world of nation-states may be upon us | Aeon Essays
Nation-states came late to history, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest they won’t make it to the end of the century

Return of the City State in 2050 — With significant upgrades

THNK Partner, Sharon Chang responds to the City Mind Prompt for Dear 2015 – A message from 2050 about how to become the sustainable city of the future.

Cities, not nation states, will determine our future survival. Here’s why

Most nation states have failed to deal with the major global challenges of our era. In their place, cities are stepping up, and these data visualizations help us understand how.

The end of a world of nation-states may be upon us | Aeon Essays
Nation-states came late to history, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest they won’t make it to the end of the century
The end of a world of nation-states may be upon us | Aeon Essays
Nation-states came late to history, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest they won’t make it to the end of the century
Wall Street Begins Trading Water Futures as a Commodity
Gordon G. Chang, BLUE GOLD: The Coming Water Wars, World Affairs, Vol. 176, No. 3 (SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER 2013), pp. 93-96 www.jstor.org/stable/43555415?seq=1
Hotspot Details Summary: After the polar ice caps, the Himalayas have the largest amount of glaciers. More than thirty thousand sq. km of the Himalayan region is covered by the glaciers that can provide around 8.6 million cubic meters of water every year. Rivers, including the Ganga, the Indus, the Brahmaputra, the Salween, the Mekong, the Yangtze and the Yellow river are fed by glaciers in the Himalayas. Millions of people rely on this annual water supply to survive. Over the past several decades global climate change has influenced the Himalayan mountain glaciers significantly, pushing tempertures close to melting conditions (Rai and Gurung 2005). Recently, the Himalayan glaciers have been in a status of retreat at an increasing rate which will eventually result in a water shortage for all Himalayan countries (e.g. China, India, Nepal, and Bhutan). Critical Statistics: According to World Wildlife Fund report, more than two-thirds of all Himalayan glaciers are retreating (Rai and Gurung 2005). Glaciers in the Chinese Himalayas are retreating at an increasing rate, particularly in the past 50 years. Between 1950 and 1970, more than 320 glaciers, in a study by Rai and Gurung (2005), were retreating.After 1990, this number increased to nearly 600. That is almost 95% of the total number of studied glaciers which shows a more widespread trend of glacial retreat (Rai and Gurung 2005). Almost all the glaciers in the region of Mount Everest have been retreating during the last century.An important source of freshwater into Tibet, the Rongbuk Glacier has been retreating 20 m annually (Rai and Gurung 2005). In India, the Gangotri Glacier retreated around 30 m every year during the recent decade.Melt water from this glacier has been a significant source for the Ganges River (Rai and Gurung 2005). Causes: About 70% of Himalayan glaciers are retreating rapidly and climate change has been reported as the major factor (Ageta and Kadota 1991). Military activities between India and Pakistan has been blamed for much of the retreat of the Indian Siachen glaciers (Hasnain 2005).Since 1984, both countries have been placing huge amount of armies and permanent military personnel in the Siachen glacial region. In 2003, a ceasefire was declared by both sides along the International Border around Siachen, but how long the impacts of military activities will continue remains unknown (Ahmed 2007). Impacts: River discharge will increase in the short term, however, "in the long run, ... water supplies in those regions (Himalayas rivers) will be in peril" (Qin 2009). Thousands of glacial lakes have been created in this region.Glacier Lakes Outburst Floods (GLOF) are occurring with higher frequency than previous decades (Rai and Gurung 2005). For example, according a report from a Tibetan local government, if there’s a GLOF at the Longbasaba and Pida lakes, 23 towns and more than 12 thousand people will be endangered (Xin et al. 2008). Impacts to agriculture include soil loss due to soil erosion, landslides and floods, and temperature increase. A decrease in surface albedo will accelerate the global climate change which will in turn increase the speed of glacial retreat. What is Next: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC 2007), the glacial retreat in the Himalayan region is continuing at an increasing rate, and due to the projected climate change in the near future, a great number of existing glaciers

February 2021

Cont. 30th March 2021

Previously I wrote about ‘The Cycle of Society (KYKLOS)’; this month is about the cycle of nature and cosmos.

Stage I – 2012-2022: Intensified magnetic pole reversal > weakened earth magnetic fields

Stage II – 2022-2032: Deeper impact of super solar storms on humanity than predicted > Ice sheets and glaciers meltdown faster than expected

Stage III – 2032-2042: Floods and tsunamis > Sea levels rise at an increased rate

Stage IV – 2042-2052: Water scarcity and crises > Drought and food shortage

Stage V – 2052-2062: Mass migrations and displacement; changed geography, civilisation and society

Either we step back into the cave-dwelling past or advent a new advanced civilisation and a futuristic world with a better-integrated society that has shun divisions, separations and primitive ways of life and behaviour. Opting for a more efficient development while being fully synchronised with nature and the cosmos.

The world never ends, it never ended, every end (end of the cycle) is a seed for a new beginning. It’s a process and a cosmic/natural cycle. It’s no one’s fault, responsibility or doing, no one is big enough to interfere in this cosmic process, thinking that way is giving way too much importance to one’s self or humankind, it instead is a challenge and a trial, which each civilisation or collective beings/species have to go through from time to time to develop further and climb onto the next stage and phase of evolution. This time is our time and happening in our time. Are we ready? Are we prepared? Are we together in this or busy pointing fingers and lose time for which we all should be preparing together right here, right now!

to be continued in our next post on the 30th March…

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February 2021

This piece or post is going to be a long one, not my usual pointers. It’s the beginning of the year and a decade, as well as a new century, we have a long way to go and it’s just the beginning of what is coming. Wise will see the signs, rest will just read, wait and wonder. Anyway time will tell, or is already telling?

Plato - 5 forms of government: aristocracy, timocracy, oligarchy, democracy, and tyranny, and writes that governments devolve respectively in this order from aristocracy into tyranny. Plato believes that having a philosopher king, and thus having an aristocratic form of government is the most desirable.

Aristotle - Aristotle writes about the cycle of governments in his Politics. He believes the cycle begins with monarchy and ends in anarchy, and that it does not start anew. He also refers to democracy as the degenerate form of rule by the many and calls the virtuous form politeia, which is often translated as constitutional democracy.

Polybius - According to Polybius, who has the most fully developed version of the Kyklos, it rotates through the three basic forms of government: democracy, aristocracy, and monarchy, and the three degenerate forms of each of these governments: ochlocracy, oligarchy, and tyranny. Originally society is in ochlocracy but the strongest figure emerges and sets up a monarchy.

All the philosophers believed that this cycling was harmful. The transitions would often be accompanied by violence and turmoil, and a good part of the cycle would be spent with the degenerate forms of government.

Polybius, in contrast to Aristotle, focuses on the idea of mixed government: the idea that the ideal government is one that blends elements of monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy. Aristotle mentions this notion but pays little attention to it. Polybius saw the Roman Republic as the embodiment of this mixed constitution, and this would explain why the Roman Republic was so powerful and why it would remain stable for a longer amount of time.

Aristocracy - Aristocracy (Greek: ἀριστοκρατία aristokratía, from ἄριστος aristos 'excellent', and κράτος, kratos 'rule') is a form of government that places strength in the hands of a small, privileged ruling class, the aristocrats. The term derives from the Greek aristokratia, meaning 'rule of the best'.

Timocracy - A timocracy (from Greek τιμή timē, "honor, worth" and -κρατία -kratia, "rule") in Aristotle's Politics is a state where only property owners may participate in government. The more extreme forms of timocracy, where power derives entirely from wealth with no regard for social or civic responsibility, may shift in their form and become a plutocracy where the wealthy rule.

Oligarchy - Oligarchy (from Greek ὀλιγαρχία (oligarkhía); from ὀλίγος (olígos) 'few', and ἄρχω (arkho) 'to rule or to command') is a form of power structure in which power rests with a small number of people. These people may be distinguished by nobility, wealth, education, corporate, religious, political, or military control. Such states are often controlled by families who pass their influence from one generation to the next, but inheritance is not a necessary condition of oligarchy.

Democracy - Democracy comes out of oligarchy, as oligarchy degenerates into a democracy where freedom is the supreme good but freedom is also slavery. In democracy, the lower class grows bigger and bigger. The poor become the winners. People are free to do what they want and live how they want. People can even break the law if they so choose. This appears to be very similar to anarchy. Plato uses the "democratic man" to represent democracy. The democratic man is the son of the oligarchic man. Unlike his father, the democratic man is consumed with unnecessary desires. Plato describes necessary desires as desires that we have out of instinct or desires that we have to survive. Unnecessary desires are desires we can teach ourselves to resist such as the desire for riches. The democratic man takes great interest in all the things he can buy with his money. Plato believes that the democratic man is more concerned with his money over how he can help the people. He does whatever he wants whenever he wants to do it. His life has no order or priority.

Tyranny - Tyranny is the outcome of failed demcracy. Democracy then degenerates into tyranny where no one has discipline and society exists in chaos. Democracy is taken over by the longing for freedom. Power must be seized to maintain order. A champion will come along and experience power, which will cause him to become a tyrant. The people will start to hate him and eventually try to remove him but will realize they are not able.

The tyrannical man is the son of the democratic man. He is the worst form of man due to his being the most unjust and thus the furthest removed from any joy of the true kind. He is consumed by lawless desires which cause him to do many terrible things such as murdering and plundering. He comes closest to complete lawlessness. The idea of moderation does not exist to him. He is consumed by the basest pleasures in life, and being granted these pleasures at a whim destroys the type of pleasure only attainable through knowing pain. If he spends all of his money and becomes poor, the tyrant will steal and conquer to satiate his desires, but will eventually overreach and force unto himself a fear of those around him, effectively limiting his own freedom. The tyrant always runs the risk of being killed in revenge for all the unjust things he has done. He becomes afraid to leave his own home and becomes trapped inside. Therefore, his lawlessness leads to his own self-imprisonment.

One can apply accusations of tyranny to a variety of types of government:

    • to government by one individual (in an autocracy)
    • to government by a minority (in an oligarchy, tyranny of the minority)
    • to government by a majority (in a democracy, tyranny of the majority)

      Ochlocracy - Ochlocracy or Mob rule (Greek: ὀχλοκρατία, romanized: okhlokratía; Latin: ochlocratia) is the rule of government by a mob or mass of people and the intimidation of legitimate authorities. Insofar as it represents a pejorative for majoritarianism, it is akin to the Latin phrase mobile vulgus, meaning "the fickle crowd", from which the English term "mob" originally was derived in the 1680s.

      Monarchy - A monarchy is a form of government in which a person, the monarch, is head of state for life or until abdication. The political legitimacy and authority of the monarch may vary from purely symbolic (crowned republic), to restricted (constitutional monarchy), to fully autocratic (absolute monarchy), and can expand across the domains of the executive, legislative and judicial. A monarchy can be a polity through unity, personal union, vassalage or federation, and monarchs can carry various titles such as emperor, king, queen, raja, maharaja, khan, caliph, tsar, sultan, or shah.

      info extraction courtesy: wikipedia

So the three kinds of cycles:

  1. Aristocracy > timocracy > oligarchy > democracy > tyranny and then back to Monarchy/Aristocracy
  2. Monarchy > anarchy (with several stages of degeneration in between) and then back to Monarchy
  3. Monarchy/tyranny > aristocracy/oligarchy > democracy/ochlocracy and the cycle restarts

And according to vedic cosmology, there are four epochs ”Yugas” (4 cyclic eras) which repeat; Satya Yuga, Treta Yuga, Dvapara Yuga, and Kali Yuga.

Someone said, ”time is a river which flows in circular motion” I would say, it’s rather a ”Spiral” but anyway a circular motion!

Will we be able to break the cycle, go beyond and evolve into something greater or just repeat it all over again? So where are we now? At which point in time & phase? Which stage of the cycle we are in?

”To know where we stand in time, is the key to act in time; to take better decisions and create a greater future” – Kxan

”I leave it on you to guess and to understand what’s next”

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